tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105691092024-03-13T00:28:32.771-04:00Section 15We're all equal, right?Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.comBlogger250125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-7364977310220062472018-01-21T10:32:00.000-05:002018-01-21T10:32:07.158-05:00Not here, Over There!Looking for me?<br /><br />This blog has been dead for quite a while.<br /><br />You can find my latest blog at <a href="https://korptopia.blogspot.ca/">https://korptopia.blogspot.ca/</a><br />
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Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-53121393882263723442011-10-18T17:04:00.001-04:002011-10-18T17:04:24.814-04:00SCC Crookes Hyperlinking Ruling Set for TomorrowIs merely having a hyperlink to material deemed libelous enough to be found guilty of disseminating libel? The Supreme Court of Canada will release its ruling on <a href="http://section15.blogspot.com/2010/04/supreme-court-to-hear-link-libel-case.html">this case</a> tomorrow!<br />
<br />
I suspect <a href="http://www.p2pnet.net/story/54273">p2pnet</a> will have the first analysis up. <br />
<br />Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-38375948978487148052011-10-09T13:51:00.003-04:002011-10-09T13:52:03.969-04:00Kinsella Agrees With MeI had argued <a href="http://section15.blogspot.com/2011/09/thought-on-campaign-slogans.html">here</a> that the campaign themes used by all except the Ontario Liberal Party were off the mark. People, in uncertain economic times, don't vote for change. They don't vote for a party with a poor reputation in Ontario for running things (fair, or not fair, that's the NDP), or for a party with a reputation of controversy and which runs on a platform of <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1052938--lost-green-jobs-small-price-for-cheaper-hydro-hudak-says">killing jobs</a> (that be the PCs).<br />
<br />
They vote for a steady hand at the wheel. <br />
<br />
Warren Kinsella made the same point in his <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2011/10/07/canadians-dont-want-to-mess-with-a-good-thing">Sun column yesterday</a>.<br />
<br />Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-17004584603701970212011-10-08T12:50:00.000-04:002011-10-08T12:50:11.162-04:00Rob Ford: We're Great Because He IsThere's much to discuss in <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1066351--ford-plans-to-push-for-more-ttc-cash?bn=1">this article</a>, but I thought I'd amaze you with this tidbit concerning Mayor Ford's deep affection for the City of Toronto:<br />
<blockquote>
...asked what he loves about Toronto, the mayor said: “This is a great city. We’ve cleaned it up, there’s less graffiti, we’ve made it a safer city.”</blockquote>
or, by analogy<br />
<blockquote>
... asked what he loves about his wife, the mayor said: “She's a great wife. I’ve got her to to be neater, cleaner, and less violent.”</blockquote>
Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-25396350532699866622011-10-07T11:29:00.002-04:002011-10-07T11:40:03.021-04:00Meanwhile, Federally, the Shenanigans ContinueWant to learn more about the Auditor General's investigations into the Harper Government's military cost overruns? The Harper Government's former do-nothing 'integrity' commissioner's half-million dollar severance package? The Harper Government's mismanaged renovations on Parliament Hill?<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/10/06/pol-auditor-general-reports-shelved.html">Too bad. </a><br />
<br />
The Harper Government *majority* on the public accounts committee forced the committee to go in-camera, and voted to not review those reports. How convenient. As a result, opposition members can't even comment on what was discussed.<br />
<br />
Yes, we can read those reports, but Parliament will be acting on them, as the committee won't. How convenient.<br />
<br />
Federally, transparency and accountability is getting worse and worse. The Harper Government figures the less we know, the less we will criticize.<br />
<br />
We know the result. As we've already seen with <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2011/09/28/it-is-time-for-tony-to-step-aside">gravy train gazebo Clement</a>, <a href="http://edmonton.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110928/ctv-probe-reveals-peter-mackays-three-million-dollar-jet-tab-110928/20110928/?hub=EdmontonHome">jet-setter MacKay</a>, and <a href="http://ottawa.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110930/john-baird-gold-business-cards-110930/20110930/?hub=OttawaHome">gold-embossed Baird</a>, the Harper Government is very capable of the worse of excesses.<br />
<br />
The more we tolerate this secrecy, the worse it will become.<br />
<br />
Oh, as you may have noticed, I am constantly calling this government The Harper Government, just as his Prime Ministerialness likes it.<br />
<br />
Might as well make him wear it.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-63629027275428627082011-10-07T08:47:00.000-04:002011-10-07T08:48:54.095-04:00And the winner is...So, which pollster had it right?<br />
<br />
I recorded the last polls of the election <a href="http://section15.blogspot.com/2011/10/polls-ticking.html">here</a>.<br />
<br />
Here they are compared to the results.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="7" frame="VOID" rules="NONE">
<colgroup><col width="80"></col><col width="56"></col><col width="36"></col><col width="37"></col><col width="49"></col><col width="86"></col><col width="217"></col></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="80"><b>Source</b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="56"><b><span style="color: red;">Liberal</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="36"><b><span style="color: blue;">PC</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="37"><b><span style="color: #ff6633;">NDP</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="49"><b><span style="color: #00ae00;">Green</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="86"><b>Dates</b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="217"><b>Details</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><br />
RESULTS</td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">37.6%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">35.4%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">22.7%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #00ae00;">2.9%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Oct 6</td>
<td align="LEFT">THE ELECTION!</td>
</tr>
<tr>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><br />
<a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1064594--last-poll-of-the-campaign-suggests-election-is-too-close-to-call?bn=1">Angus Reid</a></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">33%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">36%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">26%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #00ae00;">5%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Oct 2-4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Online; Sample: 2223; 2.1% 19/20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/on-the-hustings/majority-within-mcguintys-grasp-on-eve-of-ontario-election-poll-suggests/article2191041/">Ipsos-Reid</a></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">41%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">31%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">25%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="color: #00ae00;"><br /></span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Sep 30-Oct3</td>
<td align="LEFT">Sample 1020; 3.1% 19/20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2011/10/04/liberals-gaining-support-in-days-before-election">Abacus</a></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">37%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">34%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">24%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #00ae00;">4%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Oct 3-4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Sample 1001; 3.1% 19/20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
Abacus has the best call, perhaps because their sample was concentrated closest to election day.<br />
<br />
The huge Forum Research Poll, also under that <a href="http://section15.blogspot.com/2011/10/polls-ticking.html">link</a>, didn't report percentages, but did make a seat call of <span style="color: red;">45</span>/<span style="color: blue;">45</span>/<span style="color: orange;">17</span>, which was damn close, and nailed the NDP count. Given that that poll Forum conducted the poll over the weekend, days away from the election, the reason for the discrepancy is clear.<br />
<br />
Ipsos-Reid was way off, but also was working with the oldest data, and a smaller data set sprawled over many days. <br />
<br />
For those who don't know, the final count was <span style="color: red;">53</span>/<span style="color: blue;">37</span>/<span style="color: orange;">17</span>, the largest minority possible.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-31382025736226609542011-10-06T09:06:00.001-04:002011-10-06T09:10:34.517-04:00Toronto's Sacred Blue CowToronto's entire budget deficit can be explained by its bloated police force budget. <br />
<br />
For all of the incompetence of the brothers Ford, going after the Toronto police budget is the one thing I can support.<br />
<br />
To be clear, Ford did not get elected with such a mandate. He promised to scrape the alleged gravy without cutting a single service. This time last year he was promising to hire 100 additional police officers.<br />
<br />
Then, shortly after gaining office, Ford granted, without argument, a gravy-dripping pay increase of eleven per cent over four years, making them the highest paid force in Ontario, if not Canada. <br />
<br />
Now he is seeking to cut police spending by ten per cent. This is a difficult task given that nearly nine tenths of the police budget is spent on wages and benefits.<br />
<br />
For years, the police budget has been untouchable. As <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/marcus-gee/fords-clash-with-blair-over-police-budget-doesnt-make-sense/article2192543/">Marcus Gee</a> points out, since 1957 Toronto's population has doubled, while the size of the police force has nearly quadrupled. The original budget back then was $12.4 million.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/">Adjusted for inflation</a>, that budget would be just shy of $102 million today.<br />
<br />
The size of the current force is about 8,000. To support a police force of 8,000 at the 1957 rate would cost $43 million in 1957 dollars, or $353 million in today's dollars.<br />
<br />
We are looking at a police budget this year of nearly one billion dollars. <b>That over $600 million dollar difference is more than enough to wipe out the entire budget deficit the City is staring at this year.</b><br />
<br />
I don't beget paying our officers decently, and giving them reasonable benefits; but, <b>adjusted for inflation</b>, we're paying nearly three times per officer what we did 50 years ago.<br />
<br />
For all things, there are opportunity costs. The cost of paying police this much means there's so much less for other budgets.<br />
<br />
A Canadian Armed Forces private faces a far higher mortality and injury rate than any police officer in this country. They are subject to extreme conditions, and a lack of stability in their lives as they are moved from posting to posting. Their <a href="http://www.forces.ca/en/page/payscales-131#ncmsregular-3">starting salary</a>?<br />
<br />
$32,000.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.torontopolice.on.ca/careers/salaryandbenefits.php">starting pay</a> for a police <i>cadet</i> in Toronto, not counting overtime? <br />
<br />
$50,000.<br />
<br />
That's what a basic <i>corporal </i>makes in the military.<br />
<br />
I know there's no going back to an equivalent 1950s level of spending.<br />
<br />
Going forward, trimming the force size, and pulling back on benefits and pay, is a must.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-26246165780883589132011-10-05T09:17:00.001-04:002011-10-05T09:17:46.870-04:00More on the Flogs Issue<a href="http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2011/10/mthirty-pulls-down-another-fake-enviro.html">BCL has more</a> on the M THIRTY enviro flogs issue.<br />
<br />
Also, <a href="http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=10569109&postID=8374093412157122047">I've heard</a> that PB is removing identified flogs.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-65366699034224891992011-10-05T09:05:00.003-04:002011-10-07T08:48:46.684-04:00Polls-a-TickingPolls, polls, polls. The last ones are out for the Ontario election, and predictions range from a Hudak technical win giving way to a likely Liberal minority, to a Liberal majority.<br />
<br />
Don't look at me.<br />
<br />
For posterity, here they are:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="7" frame="VOID" rules="NONE">
<colgroup><col width="80"></col><col width="56"></col><col width="36"></col><col width="37"></col><col width="49"></col><col width="86"></col><col width="217"></col></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="80"><b>Source</b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="56"><b><span style="color: red;">Liberal</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="36"><b><span style="color: blue;">PC</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="37"><b><span style="color: #ff6633;">NDP</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="49"><b><span style="color: #00ae00;">Green</span></b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="86"><b>Dates</b></td>
<td align="LEFT" style="background-color: #cccccc;" width="217"><b>Details</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1064594--last-poll-of-the-campaign-suggests-election-is-too-close-to-call?bn=1">Angus Reid</a></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">33%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">36%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">26%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #00ae00;">5%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Oct 2-4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Online; Sample: 2223; 2.1% 19/20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/on-the-hustings/majority-within-mcguintys-grasp-on-eve-of-ontario-election-poll-suggests/article2191041/">Ipsos-Reid</a></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">41%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">31%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">25%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="color: #00ae00;"><br /></span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Sep 30-Oct3</td>
<td align="LEFT">Sample 1020; 3.1% 19/20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2011/10/04/liberals-gaining-support-in-days-before-election">Abacus</a></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: red;">37%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: blue;">34%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #ff6633;">24%</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT"><span style="color: #00ae00;">4%</span></td>
<td align="LEFT">Oct 3-4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Sample 1001; 3.1% 19/20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
I'm doubting the Ipsos-Reid poll the most as it's older. The Angus Reid has the best sample size, and contains the most recent data; but it's an online poll, which are still subject to much criticism.<br />
<br />
To add to the noise, a huge <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1064105">Toronto Star poll</a> of ridings 'too close to call' is predicting a hung legislature. The poll was conducted by Forum Research.<br />
<br />
The Liberals and PC are predicted to get 45 seats each, the NDP 17. Fifty-four seats are needed for a majority.<br />
<br />
The poll has a sample size of 23,000, and looked at 23 key ridings where the leader spread was under 5% in the last poll (done two weeks back). The poll was conducted Oct 1 and 2. If you're wondering about all the other ridings, know that most elections involve fighting over a minority of seats, with the remainder being so secure to almost not matter except in rare occasions.<br />
<br />
With such a larger swing of numbers over such a short date span (Sept 30-Oct 4), and with the NDP showing strong numbers, many ridings are going to be determined by a sliver of the vote. Such small movements in ridings can't be caught by normal polling, so it seems safe to use the Forum Research poll as the best indicator.<br />
<br />
Much like the last federal election, though, voting intentions firming up during the last few days are really going to matter.<br />
<br />
This election was Hudak's to lose. I think he has, though McGuinty having a majority is quite uncertain. If McGuinty does get a majority, it looks likely to be with a heavily divided electorate, and I hope he governs accordingly.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-83740934121571220472011-10-04T09:15:00.001-04:002011-10-04T17:48:37.400-04:00Funding Anti-Green Sock PuppetsNot all unions are in McGuinty's pocket. The Ontario Power Workers' Union (UPW) has bankrolled a campaign against McGuinty fighting the Green Energy Act.<br />
<br />
More and more, marketing companies are using social media to promote their clients. <a href="http://www.canada.com/news/Ontario+marketing+campaign+seeded+Internet+with+conversations+promoting+coal/5496585/story.html">UPW is pushing for power produced using coal and nuclear by, in part, seeding conversations in social media.</a><br />
<br />
The marketing company in question is <a href="http://www.mthirty.com/">M THIRTY</a>. Read the link above if the details and ethics interests you. I'm not getting into it.<br />
<br />
Except to point out that one of the <a href="http://www.enviralment.ca/">bloggers</a> M THIRTY uses seems to be on the Progressive Bloggers blogroll.<br />
<br />
Rather, I just wanted to point out that anti-green groups like Wind Concerns Ontario likely don't exist without similar backing. They say differently, or appear to.<br />
<br />
Note: As I write this quick note, I see that <a href="http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2011/10/enviralment-is-flog-for-pwu-power.html">BCL has written more</a>, and has included the same suspicions as mine, fleshed out in detail.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>UPDATE:</b><br />
<br />
<a href="http://bigcitylib.blogspot.com/2011/10/power-workers-union-rethinking-social.html">BCL reports</a> some flogs are going into maintenance mode... Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-3357908178897524152011-10-01T17:54:00.001-04:002011-10-01T17:54:36.964-04:00A Quick Read Regarding The Toronto Sun<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oa2zJYqVNGo/ToeIcLQ9K1I/AAAAAAAAAVY/33PLkz7Dtt4/s1600/Untitled.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oa2zJYqVNGo/ToeIcLQ9K1I/AAAAAAAAAVY/33PLkz7Dtt4/s400/Untitled.jpg" width="195" /></a></div>
Perusing <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/">The Toronto Sun's</a> online front page (yes, it happens), I was struck by what the creators of that site consider to be important information for its readers.<br />
<br />
I call them readers, but The Toronto Sun seem to barely consider them capable.<br />
<br />
<br />
As you hover over the tabloid images, a popup image appears giving you one of two essential pieces of advice: Either it's a video, or, as shown to the side here, a <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: red; color: white;">Quick Read</span></span></b>.<br />
<br />
I looked over every image. None were advertised as a long read, or an intermediate one. <br />
<br />
Quick is a virtue, and, apparently, a necessary enticement for The Sun's readers.<br />
<br />
<br />
I know. I know. The Sun's readers are all hard-working conservatives with no time for petty things like details. Eventually, The Toronto Sun may get rid of text altogether and just post pictures accompanied by your expected emotions. 'Good!' 'Bad!' 'Be angry!' 'Bizare!' Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-37596403059490647942011-09-28T12:48:00.000-04:002011-09-28T12:50:07.790-04:00A Thought on Campaign SlogansWe're in turbulent times. Economically uncrertain. People are worried about their jobs. People want certainty. Comfort.<br />
<br />
Canada just elected a stay-the-course Prime Minister preaching exactly that.<br />
<br />
So, here you are, trying to come up with a theme for your opposition political leader in an upcoming provincial election.<br />
<br />
And the theme you choose is 'Change?'<br />
<br />
You call the policy book 'Changebook?'<br />
<br />
Your advertised Twitter hashtag is '#changevote?'<br />
<br />
Your campaign bus says '[change]' all over it?<br />
<br />
Your candidates have roads signs on their pamphlets saying 'Change Ahead?'<br />
<br />
Is this wise?<br />
<br />
<br />
Compare and contrast:<br />
<br />
PCs: Change<br />
NDP: Change that puts people first<br />
Greens: It's Time <br />
Liberals: Forward. Together.<br />
<br />
The NDP slogan reads like PC-lite. Even my beloved Greens are working on a 'change' theme.<br />
<br />
Look at the Liberal slogan. Isn't that safe? Secure? Together, going forward, which is always good, right? It's safe, it's optimistic. It <i>visions</i>, even. We are given a positive direction, and none of us are alone.<br />
<br />
Do people really want change now?<br />
<br />
They don't want change. Change isn't safe. They may want BETTER, but they'll stick with being safe. Stay the course (FORWARD). TOGETHER. <br />
<br />
You know what? That's a good slogan for the times.<br />
<br />
Change isn't. Change is scary.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-71508855906823658242011-09-28T08:38:00.003-04:002011-09-28T12:50:07.798-04:00My Optimistic Debate AnalysisI didn't watch the debate. I couldn't. I happily lack cable. I don't have an antenna attached. And if I did. it couldn't pick up the new digital broadcasts if I tried as I lack the gadget. Anyway, I had better things to do.<br />
<br />
I was enjoying a fine steak dinner bought by a friend for my birthday.<br />
<br />
I didn't think of the debate once.<br />
<br />
<br />
What a wonderous birthday gift that was!<br />
<br />
(I have happily discovered the joys of borrowing DVDs from the library, BTW. The downside is I'm waiting ages for Buffy Season Two to show up. Everyone has it on hold!) <br />
<br />
I hate debates. So much do they drive me crazy, that if I were to watch, my television would implode (it's a tube set) under the onslaught of cutlery, plates, books and whatnot thrown at it. And for what? My analysis of 'who won' is useless. As a political watcher and former PR hack, I know far too much, and am far too cynical, to be caught by turns of phrases, or statistical tricks. My view doesn't reflect the public will at all.<br />
<br />
<br />
So, then, what of John and Jane Public? What did they think?<br />
<br />
Watch for the next set of reliable post-debate day polls, and then you'll know (<a href="http://www.globalnews.ca/mcguinty+narrowly+wins+debate+horwath+impresses+exclusive+new+poll/6442490737/story.html">not this one -- it's an online poll</a>). Maybe. You won't know if it'll last, though, assuming there's any significant movement in the polls at all.<br />
<br />
If you insist on figuring it out, don't read newspapers, watch television. If the talking heads say no one won, then the public will likely agree.<br />
<br />
Heack. Don't bother. Wait for the polls.<br />
<br />
And, why care? If your leader 'lost' -- assuming your leader was even in it -- what are you going to do about it anyway?<br />
<br />
Okay, fine. I'll give you my optismistic take. <br />
<br />
McGuinty won.<br />
<br />
I can tell because he isn't being stoned to death this morning. <br />
<br />
I'm sure this is a frustrating election for conservatives and dippers. There's all this ammo, and McGuinty should be long dead from the gunfire. eHealth! Taxation! Debt! But, he keeps on going. It's like he's a zombie. Or Harper. LOL.<br />
<br />Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-69427031069210696022011-09-21T16:00:00.000-04:002011-09-21T16:00:01.378-04:00Oxymoronic 'Ethical Oil' Meets IronyI hate promoting the severely flawed concept of 'ethical oil', so
much so that I don't even like using the phrase as it spreads the meme.
Still, with the Keystone XL pipeline in the news these days, here's a
fact worth punting your way.<br />
<br />
<br />
The toxic, corrosive Tar Sands crude to be transported by that pipeline will be processed by two refineries. <br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/energy/u-s-oil-giants-poised-to-gain-on-keystone-pipeline-20110804">One of those refineries is half-owned by Aramco, the state-owned oil company of Saudi Arabia.</a><br />
<br />
<br />
Given that the 'ethical oil' propagandists are pushing the false
fact that more tar sands oil will mean less oil sold by
human-rights-abusing, terrorist-funding Saudi Arabia, this is quite an
inconvenient truth. After all, the point of oil is profit, and Saudi
Arabia will profit directly from this so-called 'ethical oil' pipeline
where it would have made nothing before.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Of course, there's nothing ethical about oil production and consumption.<br />
<br />
It drives untenable infrastructure.<br />
<br />
It
causes, and will continue to cause, armed conflicts, which we will
still be involved in because the Tar Sands actually can't produce enough
for all of our needs. Heck, looks like it's just going to be refined
and largely exported. Meanwhile, Eastern Canada will continue to import
oil from abroad.<br />
<br />
<br />
Oil production and consumption pollutes.<br />
<br />
It
produces greenhouse gases. The production of crude from the Tar Sands
is the most greenhouse-gas intensive way of making crude. It leaves a
highly toxic goop behind that we store in huge lagoons. We have no idea
what to do with the goop, but we gleefully make it anyway.<br />
<br />
It severely disrupts the ecosystem when they extract it (remediation efforts to date are very modest).<br />
<br />
And,
no matter how much we make, Saudi Arabia will have no problem selling
all the oil it wants to somebody. Like the emerging economies of China
and India.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
The only true point to the 'ethical oil' frame is to shut down
debate with a false argument propagandists hope will be of appeal to the
masses.<br />
<br />
<br />
Remember, guns are legal too.<br />
<br />
Is a gun made ethically any less deadly?Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-31122688217875669102011-09-20T16:00:00.000-04:002011-09-20T16:36:13.808-04:00Conservative Party Promoting on Our Dime, AgainWell the <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1056600--nine-bills-rolled-into-tories-massive-crime-legislation">omnibus crime bill is out</a>. It's an expensive pile of solutions looking for problems, but I'll leave that to others.<br />
<br />
Instead, let's talk about under-reported 'crime':<br />
<br />
<blockquote>
Justice Minister Rob Nicholson unveiled the bill at a Brampton news
conference, not in the House of Commons. A series of cabinet ministers
marched before cameras to promote the moves.</blockquote>
<br />
I'm reminded of Ernie Eves presenting a provincial budget at a car parts plant. The point is to frame and control the message by taking the process of presenting a bill out of Ottawa, where it belongs, and to a controlled audience.<br />
<br />
We, of course, pay for this, while still paying for Parliament, where the introduction of bills belong. We pay for airfare, staff, equipment and the "parading of cabinet ministers." No mention of <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lawrence-martin/gazebos-and-the-governing-morality/article2146443/">gazebos</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
Austerity, indeed.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-69911241695706870882011-08-07T21:56:00.002-04:002011-08-08T07:30:20.490-04:00Picture from Total Recall 2012, the remakeForgot I had this! While biking across the waterfront a few weeks back, I happened by a film shoot for the Total Recall remake. I was allowed to take a picture of this cool car from the movie.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wtXE2uUy42Q/Tj9BuqA-DQI/AAAAAAAAAVM/Ibz3GVQ6lJM/s1600/Photo0108.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wtXE2uUy42Q/Tj9BuqA-DQI/AAAAAAAAAVM/Ibz3GVQ6lJM/s400/Photo0108.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />
They were getting ready to film a chase scene or something under the Gardiner. I suppose they are depicting a bleak future filled with decaying infrastructure?Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-49438668416598082872011-08-05T21:35:00.000-04:002011-08-05T21:35:50.830-04:00Friday Night FunMaster musicians <b>are</b> their instrument.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="560" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/GHkucr1jJpQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br />
<br />
Ya, I'm a Rush freak.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-40932637650837933452011-07-16T10:36:00.000-04:002011-07-16T10:36:23.505-04:00Fordconomics 1<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/marcus-gee/fords-financial-numbers-dont-add-up/article2099511/"><span data-jsid="text">Claiming you have saved $70 a week because you are making $70 less a week and have borrowed the difference.</span></a>Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-15426130869708319332011-05-01T22:54:00.000-04:002011-05-01T22:54:06.712-04:00Vote Swap Canada 2011: Facebook app finds you someone to strategically vote swap withUse it now!<br />
<br />
<b></b><b><a href="http://apps.facebook.com/voteswapcanada/" target="_blank">http://voteswap.sharurl.com/vo<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break"></span>teswapcanada/</a></b><b></b><br />
<br />
<blockquote><b>Instructions</b><br />
<br />
Submit your riding, party you support, and parties you're willing to vote for.<br />
<br />
Review your matches.<br />
<br />
Submit requests to swap votes with the people you've matched with. You can submit as many requests as you like.<br />
<br />
Once someone accepts your request, you vote for their supported party on election day and they vote for yours.</blockquote><br />
<b>Ridings at risk of falling into Harper's hands andwhom you should vote for:</b><br />
<br />
<b>Liberals:</b><br />
Swap into Eglinton/Lawrence*, Don Valley West*, Avalon*, Vancouver South*, Vancouver Quadra*, St. John's South-Mount Pearl*, Cardigan, Etobicoke Centre,Ajax--Pickering, Bramalea, Brampton West, Brampton Springdale, Guelph, Mississauga South, Mississauga Streetsville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan**, West Nova**<br />
<br />
<b>NDP:</b><br />
Swap into Pontiac*, Beauport-Limoilou*, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles*, Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo, Nanaimo--Alberni, Vancouver North, Surrey North, Palliser, Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar, Essex, Oshawa, South Shore--St. Margaret's, Central Nova**, Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission**, Gatineau**, Hull**<br />
<br />
<b>Green:</b><br />
Swap into: Saanich-Gulf Islands*<br />
<br />
<i>* these appear to make Harper's majority, seats 153, 154 and 155 defend at all costs<br />
** long shot gains that only locals dare predict; heavy voter turn out may swing these but they are risky swaps.</i>Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-64062822126410759872011-05-01T12:15:00.001-04:002011-05-01T12:17:21.975-04:00My predictionsI know others have slaved over predictions models. Grats for your work. I just wait until the end, and then guess. Here's my prediction:<br />
<br />
<blockquote>CPC 130<br />
NDP 93<br />
LPC 63<br />
BQ 20<br />
GPC 1<br />
Ind 1</blockquote><br />
I have the Conservatives at 130 because I refuse to give them a bump up, and want their seat count significantly reduced as punishment for being so anti-democratic. Polls show this to be the lower end of Conservative support. It can be lower -- the NDP maintain momentum, by all accounts, and Layton has the highest leadership rating, which is an important predictor of eventual voting behaviour. <br />
<br />
Will the conservatives get a majority? It's unlikely. Harper is grasping at straws calling on Liberals to defect to him. His rhetoric has gotten even thicker than usual. Harper would not issue such a call unless the NDP were a threat to his standing. Usually, Conservatives passively encourage NDP votes to split off the Liberal left wing. No longer.<br />
<br />
I believe the NDP deserve a crack at government, but that means being the Official Opposition first. They have the poll numbers to support that position, and the Liberals did not manage to successfully challenge Harper on what is really a terrible government record. It's time for a change of guard in the opposition benches.<br />
<br />
I don't think the BQ will be destroyed -- too bad -- but greatly reduced.<br />
<br />
I want Elizabeth May to win her seat. It's quite possible.<br />
<br />
There's an independent in Quebec who leans Conservative, but keeps winning. I'll concede.<br />
<br />
As you see, I'm using the 'I sense it in my gut' seat projection system. LOL.<br />
<br />
E-Day is going to be very exciting. There's some uptick in Ontario for the Conservatives, but polls vary too much as to how much support the Conservatives have here. The NDP-Liberal vote split will help the Conservatives, but not so much if the NDP manage to maintain their level of support, or even go higher. So many ridings in Ontario are in play due to vote splits, it's very hard to call. A lot will ride on last day impressions and GOTV (Get Out The Vote).<br />
<br />
<a href="http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/ndp_tories_in_virtual_dead_heat_either_party_could_form_minority_government_says_forum_research_poll_05-01-2011">Forum Research</a> even reports that it is possible, though not probable, for the NDP to form a minority government.<br />
<br />
My preferred scenario at this point is 18-24 months of a Conservative minority, giving the NDP time to firm up these gains, and showcase skills. Layton is experienced, and Harper will have a harder time painting him to the Canadian public with attack ads as Canadians already know him.<br />
<br />
Perhaps in the meantime the Liberals will fold their tent into the NDP, though I think this unlikely during a minority government, and certainly even more unlikely due to their pride.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-74839394363239648312011-04-29T23:10:00.000-04:002011-04-29T23:10:22.485-04:00Preserving Judeo-Christian Values in Canadian SocietyBearing false witness is apparently not much of a Judeo-Christian value these days. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://canadianconservatives.wordpress.com/2011/04/30/jack-layton-engaged-in-prostitution/">Check this out</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MgjljZY3QPY/Tbt602jvmMI/AAAAAAAAAUU/RL-aPUDp1as/s1600/untitled.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MgjljZY3QPY/Tbt602jvmMI/AAAAAAAAAUU/RL-aPUDp1as/s400/untitled.bmp" width="400" /></a></div><br />
<br />
"Naked in a bed in a brothel with a young Asian woman." Well, that's not in the story linked to. He was in the bed, she wasn't. And it was "suspected" of being a "bawdy house." Not the same as *being* a "brothel." Layton was questioned, but not charged. There wasn't anything to charge him over.<br />
<br />
So, if you go to the wrong place to get a massage -- I see them all over and have no idea which is good and which isn't -- and the police come in, that's it, your public career is over?<br />
<br />
This is Conservative endgame crap all over again. Remember Goodale and the baseless RCMP investigation announced at the end of the 2006 election? "Senate seat" Duffy releasing the tapes against Dion? Same thing.<br />
<br />
I note that the NDP considers the story malicious. People need to be more cautious about what they write.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-62719581322253024682011-04-29T16:58:00.000-04:002011-04-29T16:58:08.003-04:00I get mail: Stephen TaylorI think he's blowing a gasket:<br />
<blockquote>Days before Canadians go to vote, I am shocked by the latest poll numbers. Apparently, the socialist NDP is surging in various parts of the country and may indeed spoil a Conservative majority. Even worse, Jack Layton has suggested that he would share power with the separatist Bloc Québécois and reopen Canada's constitution. Pair this with an economic agenda that was written in Candyland, and Canada could be facing a generation of political and fiscal turmoil.<br />
<br />
I remember Bob Rae's Ontario and the accidental election of the socialist NDP in the 90s. Many Canadians are looking to the socialist NDP as a protest vote, but the time is critical to bring everyone back to the sobering reality. We must protect this fragile economic recovery that has now become uncertain with the rise of the socialists.<br />
<br />
I've let you know of our plan to run these ads in the weekend editions of the Globe and Mail and National Post. We're spreading a wakeup call to Canadians to remind them of the consequences of a terrible Orange Dawn that may come next Tuesday after election night. If you agree with me that this is a critical time to remind Canadians of what is at stake under the socialists and separatists please help us run these ads by contributing $35, $145, $250 or as much as you can afford at this time.<br />
<br />
This is it... Let's fight this together. We can save this election.<br />
<br />
Thank you,<br />
Stephen Taylor<br />
Fellow Rallier<br />
Director, National Citizens Coalition</blockquote>Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-17704171592920961582011-04-29T02:18:00.000-04:002011-04-29T02:18:26.697-04:00Conservatives conceed "NO MAJORITY"From today's <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982356--exclusive-majority-out-of-reach-tories-say?bn=1">Star</a>, a source inside the CPC says "It all comes down to Ontario and we're just not there...[there is currently no] seat matrix that gets Harper to a majority.” <br />
<br />
They need to find two dozen more seats in Ontario than they think they can get due to loses elsewhere in the country. They shook free Liberal votes alright, but they all went NDP... There just isn't enough time to regain momentum and outpace the NDP.<br />
<br />
This means they are looking at a reduced seat count somewhere around 130-135.<br />
<br />
If the Bloc are held to under 20 seats, NDP+Liberal will equal a majority.<br />
<br />
Could happen.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-17824333306049341532011-04-27T16:06:00.001-04:002011-04-27T16:13:36.177-04:00Forum Research reports reduced Harper minority, NDP in StornowayFrom <a href="http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011">The Hill Times</a>, the projection is Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only <b>three</b> seats for the Bloc Québécois.<br />
<br />
As for individual ridings, Gerard Kennedy is set to lose Parkdale-High Park to the NDP's Peggy Nash, and Beaches-East York as well to the NDP. Everyone's favourite Conservative Gerald Keddy is set to lose to the NDP out in Nova Scotia.<br />
<br />
Liberals and Conservatives will lose seats to the NDP in Quebec.<br />
<br />
There's even a loss of Conservative support to the NDP out West, though what that will do to the seat count is not clear. <br />
<br />
There's still a few days to go, but the Conservative campaign is winding down, correctly expecting less air time for the campaign as hockey and the royal wedding take the final weekend over.<br />
<br />
That also means there will be little action to change numbers. With the NDP having momentum, we're looking at the Bloc marginalized, and the NDP and the Liberals creating a majority.<br />
<br />
I recommend an accord, but I'm getting ahead of myself.<br />
<br />
---<br />
Update:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/04/electorate-firming-up-in-strange-new-normal-april-27-2011/">EKOS</a> has a different take, but not that different. NDP are a bit lower and the Bloc is holding some ground, but the NDP has surged well ahead there. All in all, I think we're waiting to see if NDP+Liberal = majority.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10569109.post-72915851868713451512011-04-21T19:00:00.001-04:002011-04-21T22:08:00.429-04:00Two simulstaneous polls, two very different resultsProclaims the National Post: <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/21/tories-19-points-up-ndp-top-liberals-for-second-poll/">Tories 19 points up, NDP tops Liberals for second: Poll</a> !!!<br />
<br />
Yikes! Ipsos Reid has the Conservatives at 43%, NDP 24%, Liberals in third at 21%? Can it be?<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/">A second poll by Ekos</a> has the Conservatives at 34.4%, and the NDP and the Liberals tied at 24.7%.<br />
<br />
Both were made by random sample phone April 18-20.<br />
<br />
Both can't be right!<br />
<br />
The answer is (likely) Ekos. Its sample size is 2156, whereas Ipsos Reid is only 1000.<br />
<br />
One thing is common here: The NDP is up, way up, while Liberal fortunes are sagging. <br />
<br />
Read the links. the regionals on Ekos are interesting.<br />
========<br />
UPDATE:<br />
<br />
I thought I'd toss in the Nanos numbers. Nanos is compiled differently than the other two. 900 random calls a night are added to the two previous nights and averaged to get an ongoing rolling average. The most recent shows Con 39%, Libs 26.7%, NDP 22.1% <br />
<br />
These numbers cover April 18-20 as well.<br />
<br />
Conservative numbers appear to be all over the place, but I've been watching the Nanos poll for weeks, and the Cons have been stalled at 39% for a long time.<br />
<br />
hard to say what is going on out there. The only consistent pattern is NDP support rising, and Liberal fortunes flagging.Mark Richard Francishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16331995640397477486noreply@blogger.com2