Harper's recalibrated repeating recalibration; and, more real reasons for the prorogue

When I looked over yesterday's federal cabinet shuffle, this is what I thought: This is a tweak. Every other government has tweaked cabinet without prorogation, why this one?

In case you missed it, that's the latest reason for the prorogation: to do a cabinet shuffle. I knew that would be the latest reason before I learned of it today because the Harper Government has become quite predictable on this point. Any event, no matter how normal in a government's life it is while Parliament sits, is portrayed as justification for prorogation. It's a communications strategy which draws upon most people's general ignorance of the process of governance. It's a strategy to name anything and everything as the cause for prorogation, except for the truth. Eventually, the Harper Government hopes that they'll be some sort of favourable general buzz.

Just remember: Harper prorogued as quietly as possible, without notice. For someone with many alleged good reasons, he certainly tried to hide the deed.

As former Harper Chief of Staff Tom Flanagan pointed out the other week "...the government's talking points really don't have much credibility. Everybody knows that Parliament was prorogued in order to shut down the Afghan inquiry, and the trouble is that the government doesn't want to explain why that was necessary."

I swear, if Harper could justify prorogation using the disaster in Haiti, he would.

Chantal Hebert this morning agrees that prorogation has nothing to do with the cabinet shuffle.

As far as recalibrating a government goes, this week's cabinet shuffle does not justify closing Parliament down for most of the winter. It was a pit stop, not a major tune-up.

Let's not forget that Harper could have shuffled cabinet at the start of the winter recess, giving affected cabinet ministers time to adjust. Certainly, this is the point Norman Spector makes:

Had that been Mr. Harper’s true motivation, he could have shuffled his cabinet weeks ago. For, as has been widely reported, the Prime Minister sent his ministers updated mandate letters before Christmas. Normally, these letters are given to ministers on the day they assume their new responsibilities.

Had the shuffle taken place before Christmas, the new ministers would have had roughly the same amount of time to prepare as they will now have. Outgoing ministers would have been spared some useless work over the holidays. And the Conservative government – and the Prime Minister – may have still been flying high in the polls.

The reasons Harper has given to justify prorogation remain dubious. Indeed, more dark reasons have surfaced. From The Toronto Star:

Beyond the investigation into how Canadian Forces oversaw the transfer and treatment of detainees in the Afghanistan war, there are three other important government accountability situations not mentioned in any media coverage so far that the federal Conservatives are avoiding through the arbitrary proroguing of Parliament by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, all of which would likely have been reported on in February.

First, the ethics commissioner is investigating and will rule on whether the handing out of Conservative party-labelled government spending cheques by several cabinet ministers and MPs was legal under federal ethics rules.

Second, the ethics commissioner, the commissioner of lobbying and Elections Canada are investigating and will rule on fundraising events by a Conservative cabinet minister and parliamentary secretary that involved lobbyists and that raise serious questions about violations of the ethics rules.

And third, the auditor general would likely release a report or two on government spending practices by various departments and agencies.

So while the parliamentary budget officer has pledged to continue to release his reports (a power he would lose if he was made into a full officer of Parliament), the officers of Parliament listed above cannot issue their rulings and reports to Parliament in February because Harper shut it down.

If the Prime Minister's speech from the throne when Parliament opens is actually an election platform, and the Conservatives' proposed budget their spending plan, and he then immediately calls a snap election, none of these key government accountability reports and rulings will see the light of day until after the election.

There's likely enough fodder in those reports for the opposition to splatter bad news about the media for weeks. It would not do to have that going on before an election!

For a long time, it's been speculated that Harper was seeking a Spring election. He was hoping to get a boost from a recession recovery budget, and gain from the patriotic buzz from the Olympics and from the political attention deficit it causes. When he prorogued quietly December 30, it was with the hope that he could have all that without the baggage that comes with Parliament-enforced accountability.

What Harper failed to account for was us.

Harper's tactical  prorogation is not going to topple his minority government. But it is highly unlikely that he will dare to call for an election in March knowing that it will shut down Parliament, and subject him to further criticism that he's delaying the country's business, and avoiding Parliament yet again.

It seems likely that Parliament will get down to business in March, pass a budget, and deal with whatever unpleasant news surfaces concerning this government. We will be reminded then by the Harper Government "See? Prorogation didn't matter" I'm sure.

Harper closed Parliament for partisan gain. The fact that he will have failed to make that gain should never be tolerated as a reason to doubt his partisan intent.

And he will fail to gain from this selfish act. He's going to fail because you are going to show up at one of the many rallies this Saturday. Right?