The Liberals going forward

Harper will survive Friday. Though the Liberals will oppose the non-confidence vote, I think they prefer Harper to hang on. They want more time to frame Ignatieff as the logical replacement to Harper, and intend to do so by in part vigorously opposing the Conservatives. Certainly, this had best be what they are intending, unless they want to go back from the brink, wishy-washy all the way.

I believe that Liberal strategists see an advantage to disengaging from Parliament beyond the short term. With the shoe on the other foot now (the NDP lefty foot), swing voters who originally backed the NDP over their opposition to Harper may find themselves pondering the Liberals a little more if this reorientation of Parliament remains. Likewise, if Harper continuing to cooperate with the NDP is palatable to swing voters on the right, then there isn't anything wrong with the Liberals having done so before, is there? (Though I doubt that hardcore Conservatives who spit the word 'socialist' will vote Liberal, regardless of who Harper cooperates with.) The Liberals are trying to strongly be the default ABC party for voters.

The Liberals feel that they are ready for an election. They have changed leaders, successfully, if anti-democratically. Their fundraising is way up. The NDP, on the other hand, don't want an election. Their polls aren't the best, and Parliament's dynamics are shifting them into an unfamiliar position, with several years of anti-Harper themes threatened. Ad into it rumours of poor finances, and of losing their Quebec ad agency, and the Liberals see an NDP on the ropes.

Certainly, the NDP's apparent surrender to a paltry EI change, backs up the view that the NDP are in no position to negotiate. Harper intended as far back as last June to never give the Liberals an inch on EI, which is why the EI working group was such a sham. He's more than pleased to hand some of the credit to the NDP. In Harper's world, this makes sense as it pits the NDP against the Liberals. Indeed, the NDP is a jealous dog here, trying to make a lot out of this table scrap.

The Liberals will spend the whole time performing for the cameras: Why did the NDP roll over? We have far better reforms planned which the NDP previously liked. Why did they lower their expectations. Oh, right, they're broke. Then out rolls their better ideas, and Iggy's great Narnia vision (whatever...).

I think that the Liberals have a game plan that includes having an election as late as December, when their remaining opposition days are to come up. What we have been seeing these past weeks are the Liberals repositioning themselves as the *only* Opposition. Several months of the Liberals banging away at Harper at every turn, with the other parties trying to defend their turnabout, can really change how people see the Liberals.

Of course, if the NDP continue to prop up Harper, there won't be an election until Harper wants one, which is likely this Spring. I have trouble seeing the NDP do that, without losing all credibility. The Liberals will be sure to place the NDP on the spot during opposition days, and in the media as often as possible. At some point, the NDP will have to go as well.

Will the Liberals gain voters from this strategy? Time will tell. It certainly may turn them into the anti-Harper party, and polarization, though it can hurt you, can also help your fortunes.