Proclaims the National Post: Tories 19 points up, NDP tops Liberals for second: Poll !!!
Yikes! Ipsos Reid has the Conservatives at 43%, NDP 24%, Liberals in third at 21%? Can it be?
A second poll by Ekos has the Conservatives at 34.4%, and the NDP and the Liberals tied at 24.7%.
Both were made by random sample phone April 18-20.
Both can't be right!
The answer is (likely) Ekos. Its sample size is 2156, whereas Ipsos Reid is only 1000.
One thing is common here: The NDP is up, way up, while Liberal fortunes are sagging.
Read the links. the regionals on Ekos are interesting.
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UPDATE:
I thought I'd toss in the Nanos numbers. Nanos is compiled differently than the other two. 900 random calls a night are added to the two previous nights and averaged to get an ongoing rolling average. The most recent shows Con 39%, Libs 26.7%, NDP 22.1%
These numbers cover April 18-20 as well.
Conservative numbers appear to be all over the place, but I've been watching the Nanos poll for weeks, and the Cons have been stalled at 39% for a long time.
hard to say what is going on out there. The only consistent pattern is NDP support rising, and Liberal fortunes flagging.
2 comments:
I always found EKOS to be a bit wonky. They also projected the Greens to have 2 seats once upon a time.
Ipsos-Reid numbers generally a tad slanted to the Harpercons, but more realistic than EKOS.
I believe NANOS most accurately predicted 2006 & 2008 results. Either way, their numbers tend to be most reliable.
Nanos does 400 calls each night of their three-day rolling poll, not 900.
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