Of course going against this is the cognitive distortion of both Harper declaring the NDP as socialists not worthy of working with, and of Jack working with a party he's made a virtue of opposing.
Over the past four years, the anti-Conservative approach of the NDP to the minority Parliaments may not have allowed the party to overtake the Liberals, but it still paid off, and there are political costs associated with relinquishing it.
Standing up to the Conservatives made the iconic New Democrat victory in Outremont possible. In 2007, a significant shift of Bloc voters, driven to the NDP by Gilles Duceppe's support for the first two Tory budgets, brought Thomas Mulcair to the Commons.
The black-and-white NDP position also allowed the party to more or less hold its own in voting intentions through successive changes at the Liberal helm.
On Monday, an Ipsos Reid poll had the NDP down to 12 per cent in voting intentions. A Nanos poll published by La Presse last week also showed a downward trend in NDP fortunes. The latest Harris-Decima poll has the party trailing badly in Ontario and Quebec and well behind in British Columbia.
Those who most want the current Parliament to work are largely spoken for by the Conservatives, and many of those who bought into Layton's previous rhetoric are losing the thread of his changing narrative.
Norman Spector mentioned yesterday that the NDP may have lost their ad agency in Quebec? Also, the NDP are behind on their fundraising. If true, an election is not something the NDP are ready for, and I think it shows.
And, ah, the Liberals know all this, don't they?
4 comments:
ah, since you were reading the star today, I'm sure you saw that torstar poll done by Angus Reid Strategies appears to back the Prime Minister's analysis.
In an online survey of 1,002 voters completed Sunday, the Conservatives had a seven-point lead over the Liberals, 36 per cent to 29 per cent, among committed voters. The New Democrats had the support of 17 per cent, the Bloc Québécois 10 per cent and the Green party 7 per cent.
The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservatives held a commanding 12 point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals in Ontario.
The poll also showed almost six in 10 – 58 per cent – were against any move by the opposition to topple the Harper government.
Ignatieff and the Liberals have said they are committed to voting out Harper at the earliest opportunity.
Here are the details of the Angus Reid poll:
The regional numbers are actually pretty good for the NDP in BC, Ontario and Atlantic - where they where in the last election or slightly higher going into it. Oh and the NDP is leading in Altantic provs, but let the latest poll out today, in a paper you were using to support your argument get in the way. Carry on.
Their trend over since the last election hasn't been the best, regional polls are not very reliable with those sample sizes, and the NDP lacks the bucks. The NDP has no momentum, and the Liberal's current strategy is taking the wind out of their sails.
The polls are quite volatile these days, in case you didn't notice.
And they are behind in raising money. If the NDP wasn't worried about an election, they would have actually leveraged something out of Harper. Instead, they seem to be taking this piece of crap 'reform', panned by their own people and unions.
Lipstick on a pig.
I understand the need. The Liberals were in the same position for a long time. Out of cash, afraid of an election, and Harper gladly leveraged it.
Now, the Liberals have money. It's the NDP's turn to get squeezed.
Getting back to Hebert's article, I know a few ex-dippers who thought Jack wore out his welcome a couple of years ago. I recall that he was a breath of fresh air when he won the party leadership, and he was a good contrast with the Liberal leader, Paul Martin. What confounded him was Martin's electoral defeat and resignation. Layton's best before date was up then; perhaps he should consider his future right now. I know an NDP under someone like Comartin or Pat Martin would make them a more compelling electoral choice for me anyway. I think after three elections, and with the last one turning the party into a virtual cult of Jack, the voters have become seriously tired of him.
It's tough for the NDP, period. If there should have been a year they could get traction, it would have been this one. I mean, capitalism utterly failed. And yet, we have a PM hell bent on neo-classical economics... and the Liberals aren't far off, but that's where a majority chunk of Canada still votes.
The NDP took NS recently, and yet, that doesn't translate into anything significant Federally.
I think the NDP remain a strong provincial party. Leave macro policy alone, and work more locally. With the feds getting weaker in Canada (which Harper wants) getting what needs to be done is provincial territory. Heck, it's the provinces and even the cities which have been doing the work on fighting climate change, for example.
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