Polls-a-Ticking

Polls, polls, polls. The last ones are out for the Ontario election, and predictions range from a Hudak technical win giving way to a likely Liberal minority, to a Liberal majority.

Don't look at me.

For posterity, here they are:

Source	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Dates	Details
Angus Reid	33%	36%	26%	5%	Oct 2-4	Online; Sample: 2223; 2.1% 19/20
Ipsos-Reid	41%	31%	25%		Sep 30-Oct3	Sample 1020; 3.1% 19/20
Abacus	37%	34%	24%	4%	Oct 3-4	Sample 1001; 3.1% 19/20

I'm doubting the Ipsos-Reid poll the most as it's older. The Angus Reid has the best sample size, and contains the most recent data; but it's an online poll, which are still subject to much criticism.

To add to the noise, a huge Toronto Star poll of ridings 'too close to call' is predicting a hung legislature. The poll was conducted by Forum Research.

The Liberals and PC are predicted to get 45 seats each, the NDP 17. Fifty-four seats are needed for a majority.

The poll has a sample size of 23,000, and looked at 23 key ridings where the leader spread was under 5% in the last poll (done two weeks back). The poll was conducted Oct 1 and 2. If you're wondering about all the other ridings, know that most elections involve fighting over a minority of seats, with the remainder being so secure to almost not matter except in rare occasions.

With such a larger swing of numbers over such a short date span (Sept 30-Oct 4), and with the NDP showing strong numbers, many ridings are going to be determined by a sliver of the vote. Such small movements in ridings can't be caught by normal polling, so it seems safe to use the Forum Research poll as the best indicator.

Much like the last federal election, though, voting intentions firming up during the last few days are really going to matter.

This election was Hudak's to lose. I think he has, though McGuinty having a majority is quite uncertain. If McGuinty does get a majority, it looks likely to be with a heavily divided electorate, and I hope he governs accordingly.